Thursday, August 19, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Sunday, August 8, 2010
Recently Naxalites butchered 76 jawans of CRPF Company in Dantewada district of Chhattisgarh, but that was not the end...mostly our daily nationals are filled with similar type of incidents..The Red Corridor (Naxalism) is stretched from remote regions of Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh as well as in Bihar and the tribal-dominated areas in the borderlands of Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Orissa, but the most interesting fact is that "CHHATTISGARH" always remain their favorite theatre of showcase.
1st Point to be noted...
Why plan such an elaborate attack in Chhattisgarh when you could have done the same thing (with a lot more ease) in Orissa or Jharkhand? Or Why to field complicated pressure bombs mostly in Chhattisgarh?
1. Loosing Support (Naxals)- They are loosing their liabilities in Chhattisgarh, local tribal’s are standing firmly against them, "Salwa Judum" is an example for it.
3. Growing Confidence (Security Personnel)- Jungles of Dantewada are once impenetrable for the police but now deep and regular patrolling is done by commandos.
4. Local Development- Administration or Govt. in Chhattisgarh are now focused on local development- like opening schools, panchayats etc. a clear unsatisfactory move as seen by the Naxals, as it endangers their race.
5. Fight for Existence (Naxals)- As they want to send shattering message by making Chhattisgarh as an idol to other naxal hit states, rolling back will hit their social and moral success/ego in other states.
Over all, the answer to the above question lies in the fact that Chhattisgarh can be a success against the Maoists.
2nd Point to be noted...
Why a country like India (having 4th largest most trained, professional standing army in the world) is loosing appetite in tribal terrains, against some thousands of unprofessional men and women?
1. Naxals: They are unprofessional (think twice!!)- Their strategy entails building up of bases in rural and remote areas and transforming them first into guerrilla zones and then as "liberated zones", besides the area-wise seizure and encircling cities, more over they are armed with Ak-47, INSAS, IED's, traditional guns like .303s etc. and well trained in guerilla warfare.
2. Failure of Intelligence: Intelligence normally is based on four things — money, ideology, conscience or enmity (MICE). A person becomes a police informer because of any of these four reasons, it's difficult for security personnel’s to work on this 4 points, moreover use of sophisticated or modern hi-tech weapons are impossible in dense forests, recent failures of using UAV's are good examples.
3. Grievance in Local Tribes: The complaint in local tribes is that many big companies like POSCO, TATA STEEL, MITTAL STEEL etc. lining up for steel, are predominantly interested in securing mining leases that will give them long term control over vast areas of land with enormous quantities of underlying ore. Local tribal’s are against it and thus naxals are taking advantage of them and in return grievances of the poor and indigenous people are made use of by the Naxal leadership.
4. Great Wall of Silence: If we peep into the last decade, it is clearly visible that even when the Naxalites boycotted elections in naxal hit states, they allowed their supporters to vote for the ruling coalitions, making a substantial difference to their fortunes. There is an understanding between the Naxals and the ruling coalition, resulting in no action by the government against the Naxalites.
5. Lack of Specialized Units: Administration must field security personnel well trained in Jungle Warfare and they must be familiar with local languages and beliefs, Grey Hounds of Andhra Pradesh and Koya Commandos of Chhattisgarh are well suited examples, local force like Koya Commandos has been trained in the latest methods of warfare – they are the ones who have been breaking the back of the Naxals in Chhattisgarh. Compared to them, the CRPF was a lumbering force comprised of men drawn from disparate states, USA did the same in Vietnam War, sending thief to catch a thief, and they created special task force "Green Berets- masters of warfare".
There is more to be written....but I agreed with the proposal that.."Use of Army is not a good option", of course it's another matter if you do not really care how many non-combatants you annihilate in order to achieve the immediate objective, like what USA did in Iraq while toppling Saddam (slaughtering thousands of Iraqi's), but they (naxals) are our people, USA would not do the same as they did in Iraq if they confront their own people in any domestic revolt...consequences of using army to suppress civil war against LTTE in Srilanka is known to all of us...moreover killing of innocent non-combatants by army men will only help naxals to gain momentum in their movement.
Friday, August 6, 2010
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Surely it was a moment of celebration for Indian scientists and a step towards indigenous Indian ABM (Anti Ballistic Missile), but I was busy in collecting
facts and figures in Math after inspired by a famous Mathematical Quote:
" If people do not believe that mathematics is simple,it is only because they do not realize how complicated life is. "
The same once appeared true for MIM- 104 Patriot Surface to Air Missile, Patriot's primary mission is to serve as US Army's ABM System, The proliferation of ballistic missiles have in recent years become a major international security concern. This is also due to the widespread -- but incorrect -- perception that even conventionally-armed ballistic missiles are tremendously destructive.
This perception that ballistic missiles are inherently weapons of great destructive capability may have played a key role in the politics of the Gulf War. Iraq fired more than 80 modified Scud missiles at Israel and Saudi Arabia during the 1991 Persian Gulf War, causing 31 deaths, numerous injuries, and substantial property damage. However, with the exception of the Scud that hit a barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, and killed 28 U.S. soldiers, the number of casualties caused by these Scuds was much lower than was generally anticipated. During the war, the Patriot missile system was credited with almost complete success in intercepting the Iraqi Scud missiles, and the low casualty rate (relative to the public's expectations) seemed to confirm Patriot's success. The belief on the part of the Israeli population that they were being successfully defended by Patriot was crucial in keeping Israel out of the war.
Since the end of war, the casualties caused by the Scuds have become part of the debate over the effectiveness of the Patriot missile defense system. Several analysts have cited the relatively low casualty rate as evidence of the success of Patriot, while others have argued that the same casualty data suggests that the Patriot may not have been very successful. more to read...
Well this article, as I already promised is not about Indian or US ABM capability but to shed light on- "To err is a Man (especially, when playing with Math)"....
" If you think dogs can't count, try putting three dog biscuits in your pocket and then giving Fido only two of them. "
So, the story starts on February 25, 1991, when an Iraqi Scud hit the barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 28 soldiers from the US Army's 14th Quartermaster Detachment, after initial enquiry it was found that patriot's interceptor missed the scud by 600 meters, but again as usual my reaction was..How it happened?
To understand the mystery, one requires little bit knowledge of "Roundoff Error" (in Math or Computing) leading to "minute mathematical error", but I will try my best to explain:
The accident was an inaccurate calculation of the time since boot (when the system was started/installed) due to computer arithmetic errors. Specifically, the time in tenths of second as measured by the system's internal clock was multiplied by 1/10 to produce the time in seconds, i.e. PESA (Passive electronically scanned radar) radar of Patriot is required to scan the space (sky) in every 1/10th of a second, generally computer's internal clock- Quartz Clock is made up of crystals (as their oscillations are constant) which can oscillate (pizzo-electric effect), based on the number of oscillations time is calculated for example...let us suppose 100 oscillations of Quartz clock = 1 sec of UTC (Universal Coordinated Time), then it's easy to calculate 1/10th of a second = 10 oscillations. This number of oscillations of internal clock in Patriot system is multiplied by 1/10 (stored in 24-bit fixed point register) to get 1/10th of a second, since it is mandatory for patriot to scan the space in each and every 1/10th of a second.
In Patriot system 24 bit fixed point register is used to store the number- 1/10 as represented in fraction, in decimal (base-10) it is represented as 0.1 but in binary (base-2) the number represents a non-terminating expression i.e. 0.0001100110011001100110011001100....and so on, but the problem is, the register which was used to store 1/10 in binary has 24 bits of space thus digits after 24 bit positions are chopped or rounded off.
In particular, the value 1/10, which has a non-terminating binary expansion, was chopped at 24 bits after the radix point. The small chopping error, when multiplied by the large number giving the time in tenths of a second, led to a significant error. Indeed, the Patriot battery had been up around 100 hours, and an easy calculation shows that the resulting time error due to the magnified chopping error was about 0.34 seconds.
The number 1/10 equals 1/24+1/25+1/28+1/29+1/212+1/213+.... In other words, the binary expansion of 1/10 is 0.0001100110011001100110011001100.... Now the 24 bit register in the Patriot stored instead 0.00011001100110011001100 introducing an error of 0.0000000000000000000000011001100... binary, or about 0.000000095 in decimal. Multiplying by the number of tenths of a second in 100 hours gives 0.000000095×100×60×60×10 = 0.34.
A Scud travels at about 1,676 meters per second, and so travels more than half a kilometer in this time (0.34 seconds). This was far enough that the incoming Scud was outside the "Range Gate (Where the scud will next appear after last radar scan)" that the Patriot tracked. Ironically, the fact that the bad time calculation had been improved in some parts of the code, but not all, contributed to the problem, since it meant that the inaccuracies did not cancel.
Note: I have not explained fixed-point representation, as it is not handy for me to include each and everything...but little bit about it explained in the following paragraph [excerpted from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) report]
The range gate's prediction of where the Scud will next appear is a function of the Scud's known velocity and the time of the last radar detection. Velocity is a real number that can be expressed as a whole number and a decimal (e.g., 3750.2563...miles per hour). Time is kept continuously by the system's internal clock in tenths of seconds but is expressed as an integer or whole number (e.g., 32, 33, 34...). The longer the system has been running, the larger the number representing time. To predict where the Scud will next appear, both time and velocity must be expressed as real numbers. Because of the way the Patriot computer performs its calculations and the fact that its registers are only 24 bits long, the conversion of time from an integer to a real number cannot be any more precise than 24 bits. This conversion results in a loss of precision causing a less accurate time calculation. The effect of this inaccuracy on the range gate's calculation is directly proportional to the target's velocity and the length of the system has been running. Consequently, performing the conversion after the Patriot has been running continuously for extended periods causes the range gate to shift away from the center of the target, making it less likely that the target, in this case a Scud, will be successfully intercepted.
" Pure Mathematics is the world's best game. It's more absorbing than chess, more of a gamble than poker, and lasts longer than monopoly. It's free, it can be played anywhere- Archimedes did it in a bathtub.
Monday, August 2, 2010
The fact that concern about the extremist threat has declined compared to last year is not too surprising. After all, last year the headlines were about the Taliban taking over in Swat, which is less than a hundred miles away from Islamabad. This year, the army has retaken the areas of the NWFP near the capital, and the headlines are about other things. So I tend to think of this as just evidence that Pakistanis aren't idiots.
Pakistanis do have some attitudes that Americans can readily understand. They are very worried about the availability of jobs and have a low opinion of President Zardari. The low opinion of the civilian leadership relative to the military (22 percent have a favorable opinion of Zardari as compared to 65% favorable to the army) may be a clue to the reasons behind the decision to reappoint Kayani.
It will come as no surprise that Pakistanis think the US leans toward India in Indo-Pak disputes. Slightly more surprising is the strong endorsement of China:
About six-in-ten Pakistanis (59%) see the U.S. as an enemy of their country, down slightly from 64% in 2009. Only 11% now consider the U.S. a partner and 16% say it is neither a partner nor an enemy. By comparison, more than eight-in-ten Pakistanis consider China a partner (84%) and say they have a favorable opinion of the Asian superpower (85%).
India continues to outrank the Taliban as a threat to Pakistan, according to the Pakistanis surveyed:
When asked to name the greatest threat to Pakistan – among India, the Taliban and al Qaeda – Pakistanis are most likely to rate India as the greatest threat to their country (53%). Fewer than one-quarter (23%) say the same about the Taliban and hardly any respondents (3%) think that al Qaeda poses the biggest threat.
President Zardari now has poll ratings comparable to those President Bush had during his last year in office.
This poll suggests that American officials may be being realistic in tilting toward Kayani as opposed to Zardari. It also suggests that the Chinese are viewed far more favorably than the US is. This is probably realistic, because China is a reliable ally against India, has made some contributions to Pakistan's development, and is not currently bombing Pakistan.
On balance there is nothing really new or shocking about the poll, and in a lot of ways it resembles the same poll last year. That said, it is a useful summary of the reasons the US faces an uphill battle in Pakistan.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Saturday, July 24, 2010
In detail, Vanunu's data showed that Israel possessed over 200 bombs with boosted devices, neutron bombs, F-16 deliverable warheads, and Jericho warheads. The boosted weapons shown in the Vanunu photographs revealed a sophistication that inferred the requirement for testing. Vanunu revealed for the first time the underground plutonium separation facility where Israel was producing 40 kilograms annually, several times more than previous estimates. Photographs showed sophisticated designs which scientific experts say enabled the Israelis to build bombs with as little as 4 kilograms of plutonium.
Below: Vanunu revealed to press during imprisionment "Kidnapped in Rome by Mossad Agents and flight details"
A week prior to the interview’s publication, he was lured by a Mossad agent from London to Rome ( more details), where he was apprehended and whisked off to Israel. In secret proceedings, Vanunu stood trial for treason, was swiftly convicted, and sentenced to 18 years behind bars. He spent more than 11 of them in solitary confinement. He was released from prison April 21, 2004 with severe restrictions on his activities for at least the next six months and possibly indefinitely. Vanunu may not communicate with foreigners and may not travel into certain areas of Israel. more to read..
Vanunu has been characterized by some as a whistleblower and by others as a traitor (in israel). Daniel Ellsberg has referred to him as "the preeminent hero of the nuclear era", Amnesty International issued a press release that "The organisation considers Mordechai Vanunu to be a prisoner of conscience and calls for his immediate and unconditional release. moreover “He [Vanunu] has written letters to us this year and last year also, where he stated explicitly that he did not want to be a candidate for the Nobel Peace Prize. The reason he gave was that Simon Peres had received the Nobel Peace Prize, and Peres he alleged was the father of the Israeli atomic bomb and he did not want to be associated with Peres in any way.” – Geir Lundestad, Director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute and Secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 24 February 2010.
"Dimona should be open to international inspections, should be shut down because it is past its age, beyond 25-30 years, it is now 40 years working. If the U.S. is looking for nuclear weapons in the Middle East, or a nuclear factory, it is here in Israel." - Mordechai Vanunu
1. French premier Guy Mollet is even quoted as saying privately that France "owed" the bomb to Israel- France and Israel signed a revised agreement (after Suez Canal crisis) calling for France to build a 24 MWt (now it is revised to 75 MWt, some fear it to be 200 MWt) reactor (although the cooling systems and waste facilities were designed to handle three times that power) and, in protocols that were not committed to paper, a chemical reprocessing plant. This complex was constructed in secret, and outside the IAEA inspection regime, by French and Israeli technicians at Dimona, in the Negev desert A new intelligence agency, the Office of Science Liasons,(LEKEM) was created to provide security and intelligence for the project. At the height construction, some 1,500 Israelis some French workers were employed building Dimona. To maintain secrecy, French customs officials were told that the largest of the reactor components, such as the reactor tank, were part of a desalinization plant bound for Latin America. In addition, after buying heavy water from Norway on the condition that it not be transferred to a third country, the French Air Force secretly flew as much as four tons of the substance to Israel. more to read..
2. Vela Incident- There is no evidence that Israel has ever carried out a nuclear test, although many observers speculated that a suspected nuclear explosion in the southern Indian Ocean in 1979 was a joint South African-Israeli test. more to read...
3. British Aid- Top secret British documents obtained by BBC Newsnight show that Britain made hundreds of secret shipments of restricted materials to Israel in the 1950s and 1960s. These included specialist chemicals for reprocessing and samples of fissile material—uranium-235 in 1959, and plutonium in 1966, as well as highly enriched lithium-6 which is used to boost fission bombs and fuel hydrogen bombs.The investigation also showed that Britain shipped 20 tons of heavy water directly to Israel in 1959 and 1960 to start up the Dimona reactor.The transaction was made through a Norwegian front company called Noratom which took a 2% commission on the transaction. Britain was challenged about the heavy water deal at the International Atomic Energy Agency after it was exposed on Newsnight in 2005. British Foreign Minister Kim Howells claimed this was a sale to Norway. But a former British intelligence officer who investigated the deal at the time confirmed that this was really a sale to Israel and the Noratom contract was just a charade. The Foreign Office finally admitted in March 2006 that Britain knew the destination was Israel all along.Israel admits running the Dimona reactor with Norway's heavy water since 1963. French engineers who helped build Dimona say the Israelis were expert operators, so only a relatively small portion of the water were lost during the years past since the first operation of the reactor.
4. South African Documents- In 2010, The Guardian released South African government documents that it alleged confirmed the existence of Israel's nuclear arsenal. According to the Guardian, the documents are minutes taken by the South African side of alleged meetings between senior officials from the two countries in 1975. The Guardian alleged that these documents reveal that Israel had offered to sell South Africa nuclear weapons that year. The documents appeared to confirm information disclosed by a former South African naval commander, who said there was an agreement between Israel and South Africa which involved an offer by Israel to arm eight Jericho missiles with atomic bombs, however Israel denied the reports, but later on Two South African journalists described that Eschel Rhoodie, the apartheid government's information minister, privately described in 1979 how he had transported "the trigger" (of a nuclear weapon) as hand luggage on a flight from Tel Aviv.
Now the real question is "Israel has fewer enemies (mainly Arab world), so 10-30 (at max) Nuclear Bombs are sufficient, but Why Israelis are making 100-200 Nuclear Bombs?"
May be they think that, Nobody has helped/protected them in World War II from Hitler and their Nazi allies, they suffered a lot during The Holocaust (was the genocide of approximately six million European Jews during World War II, a programme of systematic state-sponsored extermination by Nazi Germany). Nuclear Bomb is widely supported by many leaders of Israel but, they maintain nuclear ambiguity above perception can be firmly supported by the following statement by Israel Atomic Energy Commission (IAEC) chairman, Ernst David Bergmann in 1952, who had long advocated an Israeli bomb as the best way to ensure "that we shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter."
The question, whether Israel is the 6th Nuclear state after Big 5 (USA, China, Germany, France and UK) is what i left to the readers, because one possibility always remain there...may be Israel is feilding false believes or a Hoax, they want to bluff others about israel's nuclear programme, due to their violent and unfreindly neighbours (Arab World), i.e Mordechai Vanunu may be their agent or may be he is genuine but they had provided him with false information because its impractical that under the umbrella of most proffessional intelligence agency "MOSSAD" and "SHIN-BET", a guy can take 60 photographs without coming to the notice of others....that is why i left the answer to the readers to decide, whether Israel has Nuclear Secrets?
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
(An article in DNA India)
For some radical Sunnis, Shias are less than pure Muslims. More recently, Sufis have been targeted. When Ahmaddiyas were butchered recently, the media categorised them as a religious sect and many “experts” absurdly argued that all this was done by the Ahmaddiyas themselves to abrogate the blasphemy laws which had banned them from calling themselves Muslims.
Pakistan is thus close to civil war.
PROFESSOR OF FINANCE
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
Friday, June 18, 2010
Last month an article was aired on Fox news citing Pakistan as "No. 1 Nation in Sexy Web Searches? Call it Pornistan" By journalist Kelli Morgan, later on Google has officially denied the accuracy of its search trends that claimed Pakistan is the world’s leader in online searches for pornographic material, Google’s public affairs head of South East Asia said that the statistics were based on limited data, therefore, they cannot be regarded as final opinion.
Well this is a defense blog, but I decided to put this findings on my blog because i am very much astonished by the counter reaction/comments from pakistani people, pakistani media and ISI, now they had the same taste, what they did to malign the sovereignty of our highly respected Armed Forces by circulating an article "Indian Army To Deploy Prostitutes As A Women Battalion In Held Kashmir" in their daily nationals.
“You won’t find strip clubs in Islamic countries. Most Islamic countries have certain dress codes,” said Gabriel Said Reynolds, professor of Islamic Studies at the University of Notre Dame. “It would be an irony if they haven’t shown the same vigilance to pornography.”
Google Trends generates data of popular search terms in geographic locations during specific time frames. Google Insights is a more advanced version that allows users to filter a search to geographic locations, time frames and the nature of a search, including web, images, products and news.
“[It] could lead to conversion, which would undermine the very order of the state,” he said. “Part of protecting the society is making sure that there is no way it could be undermined in terms of foreign influences.”
The country’s punishment for those charged with blasphemy is execution, but the question remains what -- if anything -- can be done about people who search for porn on the Web.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
MAOISM or Mao Zedong Thought
To Overthrow the Govt. of India, and claim to be fighting for the rights of the tribes in the forest belt around central India.
Almost 220 districts of india, Currently it has presence in remote regions of Jharkhand and Andhra Pradesh as well as presence in Bihar and the tribal-dominated areas in the borderlands of Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, West Bengal and Orissa, generally called as RED CORRIDOR.
Retains the tactics of its predecessor Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) People's War of rejecting parliamentary democracy and capturing political power through protracted armed struggle based on guerrilla warfare. This strategy entails building up of bases in rural and remote areas and transforming them first into guerrilla zones and then as "liberated zones", besides the area-wise seizure and encircling cities.
May 17, 2010 : 35 killed after Maoist rebels blow up bus in India.
April 6, 2010 : At least 73 CRPF and district force personnel were killed, when a large group of Naxals ambushed them in the Mukrana forests of Chhattisgarh's Dantewada District.
February 20, 2010 : Maoists killed a village guard by slitting his throat.
February 18, 2010 : Twelve villagers were killed and 9 injured in indiscriminate firing by the Maoists in Jamui district of Bihar. The dead included three women and one child. Twenty five village houses were also burned down by the Maoists.
February 16, 2010 : Silda camp attack.
October 8, 2009 : About 150 Maoist ambushed a Police patrol and killed 17 Policemen in Gadchiroli, Maharashtra.
October 6, 2009 : Police inspector Francis Induwar was beheaded by Maoists in Jharkhand, The action has been compared to the tactics of the Islamist of Afghanistan.
April 13, 2009 : 10 paramilitary troops are killed in eastern Orissa.
and the list is long.......
Do you know, what is the daunting question? - sustaining such type of vast operations require hefty bank balance, Making a profit is actually very important for the revolution, since profits can be spent on weapons, support for full-time cadre and fighters. expansion, etc. If a recent Indian government report can be believed, the Naxalites are a highly profitable outfit. In Red Kitty and Beyond and Remember Jenkin`s Ear, a couple of analysts discuss this issue in detail.
A key point is that the problem of corruption in India benefits the Naxalites
If this much is well-known, what is only beginning to emerge is the extent to which the civil administration in states like Bihar and Jharkhand is also part of a web of corruption that feeds the conflict.
Questioned during a 2009 field visit, a senior Jharkhand police official observed that Block Development Officers often pay bribes to be posted to Naxal-affected districts. “There is ample money and no accountability,” noted the senior official, his point being quite clear: Illegal mining activity in Jharkhand feeds the Naxalites, bureaucrats and politicians equally.
Little effort has been made to study this aspect of a burgeoning war economy. Instead, the debate is dominated by the government’s emphasis on the regime of loot and extortion put in place by the Red Army. Yet a symbiotic relationship is at hand. For instance, contractors laying roads in the remote areas are willing to conceal explosives under the road surface on behalf of the Naxalites, because explosions targeting culverts and small bridges permanently erase evidence of poor-quality work.
As a necessary first step in dealing with the challenge, the Seventh Report of the Second Administrative Reforms Commission recommended in February 2008 that a special anti-extortion and anti-money laundering cell be set up by state police/state governments.
The state governments have been asked by New Delhi to prepare action plans to monitor and curb illegal mining. The use of satellite imagery and other intelligence inputs has been advised by the central government in the preparation and implementation of such action plans. Further, a Coordination-cum-Empowered Committee has been set up by the central government to ensure elimination of delays in grants of mineral concessions to reduce the scope for illegal mining.
The idea of corrupt contractors building substandard small bridges and helping the Naxalites blow up the bridges to cover their tracks is amusing. Especially when one considers that this creates a continuing demand for new bridges. A bribe paid to an official to get the contract for the new bridge, build a new bridge with explosives planted ahead of time, pay off the Naxalites ... this could be a continuing highly profitable enterprise.
Perhaps twenty years from now we will see a movie, made by the next Mani Ratnam, about how the next Dhirubhai Ambani made it big in the construction industry by paying off both sides The key point here is that the Naxalite movement, considered purtely as a racket, seems to be very successful. This success is going to make it very hard to eliminate.